South Carolina Strikes Back- the Democrats

(7:02) CNN projects Barack Obama wins, two minutes after the polls close. They report no results, but they have an exit poll. The Democratic primary electorate is claimed to be 61% female, which is pretty lopsided, and has 1905 respondents, but has no other data yet. It might take them a few minutes to get it up on the website. The New York Times reports heavy turnout, with about 350,000 votes expected versus 290,000 in 2004.

(7:17) I was wondering about the percentage of African-Americans in the Republican primary, so I looked at that CNN exit poll- and it isn't even asked. I would bet it's pretty small. Note that the state is 30% African-American, one of the highest percentages in the nation.

(8:01) The New York Times still hasn't reported a winner. With 8% of results in, it's Obama 22 243 (50.7%), Hillary 12 650 (28.8%), and Edwards 8 765 (20.0%). A few counties are over the 15% threshhold for county results- the main interesting result is that Edwards is leading by a sizeable margin in Oconee and Pickens counties, which are in the northwest corner of the state at the foot of the Appalachians. These are areas with substantial towns. Pickens County has a sizeable college campus, Clemson University.

(8:07) Up to 15% reporting. Obama 42 861 (52.8%), Hillary 22 402 (27.6%), Edwards 15 592 (19.2%). 15 counties are now over the 15% threshhold, and Obama is leading in twelve of them. However, there is one major county, Lexington County, reporting a slight lead for Clinton over Obama. This county is across to river from Columbia and is therefore heavily suburban, and is only 12.6% African-American, a very low number for South Carolina.

(8:16) 20% reporting: Obama 54 848 (52.4%), Hillary 28 583 (27.3%), Edwards 20 797 (19.9%).
The report of an Edwards lead in Pickens County has switched to an Obama lead (did Clemson's vote come in?) and a new county, Cherokee County, reports an Edwards lead. This is also in the west, and has a sizeable town.

(8:29) 40% reporting: Obama 111 317 (52.6%), Hillary 58 400 (27.6%), Edwards 40 882 (19.3%). 28 counties over 15% (about 2/3) with two Edwards leads and one Hillary lead. The Hillary lead is in Horry County, which contains Myrtle Beach and has both a low African-American population and a high Yankee population due to major population growth in the last few decades.

(8:57) CNN's exit poll shows 54% for Obama, 27% Hillary, and 19% Edwards. The electorate was 54% African-American and of those 79% voted for Obama, 18% for Hillary, 3% for Edwards. Of the 46% non-African-American part of the vote, 23% voted for Obama, 36% for Hillary, and 41% for Edwards.

The best funny result in the exit poll is that non-African Americans over the age of 60, only 15% voted for Obama, while non-African Americans under 30 voted 52% for Obama.

(9:31) CNN projects that Obama has won 15 delegates, Hillary 6, and Edwards 5. Their total selected delegate totals are Obama 59, Hillary 44, and Edwards 23.

(10:40) Best instant comment:

In last week's SC GOP primary, McCain and Huckabee (the top 2 finishers), got 147,283 and 132,440 votes respectively. That's a total of 279,723. Obama just pulled down 291,000 by himself. Here's the data.

I'd say this is the game changer. Obama can now say that he's got the best ability to put southern states in play. Obama can attempt a true 50 state strategy. He probably would not win too many southern states, but winning a few absolutely obliterates the GOP's chances in November.

This also shows that George W Bush is a uniter after all: People are so fucking frustrated that even rednecks are willing to give a black guy a chance.