Florida Republican Primary Liveblog (Jan.29)

(6:26) Polls close at 7:00, which is awfully early. I'm not sure if they close at the same time in the Central Time Zone (yes, the western end of the Panhandle really is as far west as Chicago), but it would be pretty bad if it did because it would only be 6 there. I guess you have to squeeze in voting between the poll opening and having to go to work because it's Tuesday.

Just before watching, Florida has 21 counties with populations over 200 000: these are Miami-Dade (2 253 362), Broward (1 623 018), Palm Beach (1 131 184), Hillsborough (998 948), Pinellas (921 482), Orange (896 344), Duval (778 879), Polk (483 924), Brevard (476 230), Volusia (443 343), Lee (440 888), Seminole (365 196), Pasco (344 765), Sarasota (325 957), Escambia (294 410), Manatee (264 002), Marion (258 916), Collier (251 377), Leon (239 452), Alachua (217 955), and Lake (210 528). The total population is 15 982 378 in the 2000 Census, the fourth largest in the United States, of which 16% is African-American and 20% is Latino.
The Latino population is concentrated in the southern part of the state, with Miami-Dade County being 18% African-American and 66% Latino (nearly half the state Latino total), Broward County being 21% African-American and 17% Latino, and Palm Beach County being 30% African-American and 18% Latino. In contrast, Duval County is 28% African-American and only 4% Latino.

The population of Florida is concentrated in coastal areas and in a central area between the coasts around Orlando. The four major metropolitan areas are Miami (the fourth largest urban area in the United States), which contains Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties (5 007 564, 31%), Tampa/St.Petersburg, which contains Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Pasco Counties (2 265 195, 14%), Orlando, which contains Orange, Seminole, and Osceola Counties (1 434 033, 9.0%), and Jacksonville, which contains Duval and Clay Counties (919 693, 5.8%). In Florida, suburban-type housing developments are very widespread and actually cover large parts of both coasts. One interesting cultural characteristic is that the western area, the Panhandle, resembles Georgia and Alabama more than it resembles peninsular Florida, but this is a small part of the total population. The Panhandle's major counties are Escambia (seat Pensacola) and Leon (seat Tallahassee).

This is the last Florida election conducted with electronic voting. The state voted to ban it after the 2006 elections, just six years after the 2000 voting debacle, but apparently not in this primary.

(7:03) As the polls close, I should mention that this will primarily focus on Republican results because the Democratic Party has stripped Florida of its delegates for an unauthorized early primary. The Republicans have only stripped half of the delegates, which the state party says will be the half which were to be allocated proportionally to the share of the vote, making Florida the first winner-take all state on the primary calendar. The Republican winner will be awarded all 57 delegates which the party leaders says will be allowed at the convention. In the Democratic primary, unlike in Michigan, all major candidates are on the ballot, so results will not be as totally ridiculous as they were there.

(7:16) MSNBC reports minor irregularities in Broward County involving nonfunctioning voting machines early in the morning and in Miami-Dade County involving incorrect party registrations which forced voters to vote in the other primary. The Miami-Dade irregularities were reported to affect both parties.

(7:28) Machine problems are also reported in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties. One precinct in Boynton Beach in Palm Beach County was shut down for part of the day due to failure of all of its voting machines. However, nothing on the scale of the Horry County disaster in South Carolina seems to be out there.

(7:38) Results- with 1% reporting, the votes are McCain 32 679, Romney 32 435, Giuliani 18 837, Huckabee 16 784, and Paul 3 557. Two suburban counties have over 15% reporting and in those McCain leads Romney 31%-29% in Pasco County in the Tampa-St.Petersburg area and Romney leads 34%-32% in Osceola County in the Orlando area.

(7:42) 4% reporting- Romney 64 384, McCain 61 058, Giuliani 34 217, Huckabee 26 276, Paul 6 066. Volusia, Manatee, and St.Lucie Counties report narrow McCain leads with over 15% reporting.

(7:46) 7% reporting- McCain 85 404, Romney 83 705, Giuliani 43 244, Huckabee 32 900, Paul 8 415. Bradford County, a small rural county near Jacksonville, is the first county reporting a Huckabee lead. In major counties, Manatee and Sarasota report small McCain leads. Huckabee is not doing well in Leon County (Tallahassee) in the western region, with 16% as opposed to 40% for McCain and 29% for Romney. This is also the first large McCain lead reported.

(7:50) 10%- McCain 125 056, Romney 112 428, Giuliani 67 057, Huckabee 46 723, Paul 11 380.
Osceola County has flipped to McCain. At 8:00 the Central Time part of the Panhandle will have its polls close.

(8:00) CNN has projected Hillary the winner of the meaningless Democratic primary. With 15% reporting, the results are Hillary 214 759, Obama 119 334, and Edwards 63 495. The Republicans now have 15%- McCain 175 207, Romney 155 219, Giuliani 88 120, Huckabee 65 320, and Paul 16 387. Most reporting counties show a slight McCain lead except for rural counties around Jacksonville which show Romney or Huckabee leads.

(8:07) CNN exit polls are out. They predict a McCain win with 34%. The other candidates got- Romney 31%, Huckabee and Giuliani 15%, and Paul 4%. The report is that the Republican electorate is 56% male, a major gender imbalance. 35% of the Republican electorate was under 50 and a mere 7% under 30. Catholics, which in a Republican primary in Florida are probably mostly Latino (with some Yankees), favored McCain over Romney by 37% to 28% with Giuliani at 24% and Huckabee at 4%.

(8:25) With 30% reporting, we have McCain 294 934, Romney 285 270, Giuliani 133 669, Huckabee 117 882, and Paul 27 215. Romney leads in the lower Gulf coast area, famous as the home area of Porter Goss and Katherine Harris. He also has a slim lead in Orange County, containing Orlando, but elsewhere seems to be running behind McCain. Huckabee is leading in three minor northern counties in the sparsely populated area around the Suwannee River.

(8:39) 35% reporting, McCain 342 886, Romney 322 522, Giuliani 155 414, Huckabee 135 455, Paul 31 015. Another metropolitan center, Duval County, which is the city of Jacksonville, reports Romney leading McCain 40% to 27%.

(8:47) The Tampa/St.Petersburg area shows McCain ahead of Romney. Broward County in South Florida shows McCain with a larger lead.

(8:56) 46% reporting. McCain 404 294, Romney 366 298, Giuliani 177 601, Huckabee 153 928, Paul 36 140. With 31% reporting, Miami-Dade County's vote is McCain 38 030, Giuliani 26 046, Romney 11 062, Huckabee 4 786, and Paul 1 475. The very low Romney vote (13%) is very interesting. McCain also leads strongly in the other two South Florida counties with Romney barely leading Giuliani.

(9:04) Palm Beach County is jinxed! The partial result showing a large McCain lead with Giuliani and Romney nearly tied is replaced with 0% reporting on the NYT site. Oddly, CNN has 0% reporting with totals which are 10 661 McCain, 7 809 Romney, 5 206 Giuliani, 2 363 Huckabee, and 995 Paul. The same anomaly occurs on the Democratic side-Hillary 35 242, Obama 16 128, Edwards 5 807.

(9:13) Orange County, which contains Orlando, has 92% Republican reporting and 0% Democratic. CNN shows no county totals.

(9:15) CNN calls Florida for McCain. This would give him all 57 delegates if it stands up.

(9:28) 62% reporting- McCain 502 311, Romney 442 278, Giuliani 212 554, Huckabee 185 718, Paul 44 496.

(9:48) CNN reports new delegate totals: McCain 95, Romney 67, Huckabee 26, Paul 6, Giuliani 1. The number of delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday: 1 081. 1 174 are required to clinch the nomination.

(9:55) It looks like the sites are still accumulating Palm Beach results but are showing 0% reporting. The result is now McCain 23 216, Romney 17 204, Giuliani 9 880, Huckabee 4 948, and Paul 2 011. With 74% reporting, the state totals are McCain 581 995, Romney 505 017, Giuliani 241 826, Huckabee 215 862, and Paul 51 613.