New Hampshire Primary Liveblog

(7:22) There's a poll result on which says half of Republicans think the economy is "good." I guess they think they work for the party, so they have to say that. There's that poll about "evangelicals" again- only 22% of voters in NH, because they aren't confusing as many Lutherans with a badly worded poll question.

TIME magazine says Hillary is "short" on cash, having only $15 million to $25 million on hand. What's the deal? Didn't expect the campaign to run until Gigantic Tuesday?

(7:33) First results in. With 6% in, Hillary and Obama are tied and McCain leads Romney by 9%. You know, if Romney can't win this, he might want to think about getting out. He might win Michigan on Tuesday, but he's basically the only one running any ads there at all- over Christmas I saw only Romney ads on TV, except for a single Giuliani ad (Guess what! It was about September 11!) and the only signs I saw were the ones for Ron Paul, which are everywhere. CNN shows no results yet.

(7:44) They're up to 9% in at MSNBC with no CNN results yet. They're showing Giuliani with 9% and Paul with 8%, behind Huckabee at 14%. I hope Giuliani gets beat by Ron Paul again.

(7:50) I noticed there aren't any results for Fred Thompson at all. I guess he's rated as a fringe candidate in this one.

(7:56) 93% of Democrats say they're "angry" with the Bush Administration.

(8:01) Polls have closed. There were results in before the polls closed?

(8:11) MSNBC calls the primary for McCain. So does CNN. With 11% in, he leads 37% to 28%. Is it time for Romney to drop out yet?

(8:24) MSNBC claims 51% of REPUBLICANS are "dissatisfied" or "angry" about the Bush Administration.

(8:27) The New York Times site has percent in for different counties- most of the early returns are for Strafford County (now about 60% in) with 13% of the total in. This county is on the Maine border around Rochester and Dover and has 112,000 people, about 9% of the total.

(8:44) If you take the early results and divide by the percent in, you get a projection of 280,000 Democrats and only 180,000 Republicans. The population of New Hampshire is 1.2 million, which suggests around 800,000 eligible voters. Note that this is a highly uneven turnout in a swing state (where Republicans lost big in the 2006 midterms) with very avid voters. The Republicans must be really dissatisfied with the field. I'm sure Sen. Sununu isn't going to like these numbers, either.

(8:47) Romney is conceding. He mentioned his first-place finish in Wyoming that nobody noticed. He also said Michigan is an example of what will happen to the economy if the Democrats are in office. Hey, didn't Michigan have a Republican governor for 12 years (John Engler, 1991-2003), and don't the Republicans still control one branch of the state legislature?

(9:08) Chris Matthews defines Giuliani's performance as "just about as badly as you can do in New Hampshire."

(9:11) McCain is on the podium. The crowd looks enthusiastic. He's tlked a bunch of times about being "truthful"- a slam at Bush, Romney, and possibly Giuliani?

(9:20) CNN's exit poll claims Ron Paul got a 24% of the vote in the 18-24 age category and 18% of those from 25-29. It's also notable that Republicans were 56% male. The Democratic poll is also up- it seems to suggest that Clinton might have won overall. If you do the math, it was 40% to 37% in the exit poll.

(9:43) The New York Times shows county results for every county but Belknap County (seat Laconia) at this point. It shows Mitt Romney leading in 1 county (Rockingham, contains coast) and McCain in the other 7. Romney is also in a near-tie in New Hampshire's most populous county, Hillsborough County (Manchester and Nashua), while McCain leads outstate.

On the democratic side, Hillary has both Rockingham and Hillsbourough by solid margins. Obama has five of seven outstate counties. Obama does better than Hillary in rural areas?

(10:30). Called for Hillary by MSNBC.
(10:38) CNN reports AP call, doesn't yet call.

(10:54) Obama on. Best line: "We will not use 9-11 to scare a vote." Perhaps somebody at the Obama campaign has noticed the Bush Administration has such a poor reputation on this issue that a 2004 Zogby poll has shown amazing percentages of the public actually thinks they did it? In New York state, 41% thought there was some government complicity, including 49% of New York City. "The charge found very high support among adults under 30 (62.8%), African-Americans (62.5%), Hispanics (60.1%), Asians (59.4%), and "Born Again" Evangelical Christians (47.9%)."

(11:12) Obama says we should get out of Iraq (and stay in Afghanistan). Hillary says we will end the war "the right way". Earth to Hillary: You want to sound decisive on this issue. This is why Kerry lost in 2004.

Unfortunaltely, with most of the results in it appears that Giuliani has come in fourth (8.6%), ahead of Ron Paul (7.7%).

(1:56) Turnout- Democrats 279,276 with 96% reporting, Republicans 228,531 with 96% reporting. This looks like a significant difference. Altogether this is 507,807 votes out of 850,536 registered voters (60%).