Monday, August 18, 2008

47 House Seats the Republicans Aren't Contesting

This year, 47 Democrats will be elected to the House of Representatives without Democratic opponents. One can see below what areas Republicans have decided they simply don't represent.

The D+14 and such below is the Partisan Voting Index, which indicates the difference between the 2000 and 2004 vote for Bush and the national average, with D indicating a more Democratic district. Minorities are given if over 20% Latino or Black or 10% Asian.

One shocking feature of the list is that Republicans are contesting only 2 of 10 Massachusetts seats and one of the four seats in Arkansas. I guess those are states with really bad Republican parties. What is less surprising is the concentration in centers of major cities, including two in Boston, two in New York, four (!) in Chicago (including an affluent white area), two in Atlanta, two in Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, and six (!) in Los Angeles, including one of the wealthiest districts in the US (Waxman's seat). Newark, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Richmond, Norfolk, Memphis, Jacksonville, and El Paso also apparently are places Republicans just aren't interested in. However, I have to commend Anh Joseph Quang Cao, the brave soul who is running for Congress as a Republican in New Orleans.

Northeast

VT (Welch) D+8. Entire state.
MA-02 (Neal) D+11. Springfield east to edge of Boston area south of Worcester.
MA-03 (McGovern) D+11. Worcester south to Rhode Island.
MA-04 (Frank) D+17. New Bedford, Fall River, some Boston suburbs.
MA-05 (Tsongas) D+9. North Boston suburbs along New Hampshire border.
MA-07 (Markey) D+18. Suburbs north of Boston.
MA-08 (Capuano) D+31. 22% Black. Central Boston, core suburbs around Cambridge.
MA-09 (Lynch) D+15. Suburbs south of Boston, part of city.
MA-10 (Delahunt) D+8. Cape Cod, southeast Boston suburbs.
NY-06 (Meeks) D+38. 52% Black. Queens near JFK airport.
NY-09 (Weiner) D+14. 15% Asian. Southern Brooklyn and Rockaways.
NJ-10 (Payne) D+34. 57% Black. Newark, Elizabeth.
PA-14 (Doyle) D+22. 23% Black. Central Pittsburgh.

Midwest

MI-14 (Conyers) D+33. 61% Black. West side of Detroit, inner suburbs around Dearborn.
IL-02 (Jackson) D+35. 62% Black. South side of Chicago.
IL-04 (Gutierrez) D+13. 74% Latino. Oddly shaped part of western Chicago.
IL-05 (Emanuel) D+18. 23% Latino. North Chicago, some suburbs.
IL-07 (Davis) D+35. 62% Black. Downtown and western Chicago.
IL-17 (Hare) D+5. Quad Cities, oddly shaped rural west of state.
WI-04 (Moore) D+20. 33% Black. Milwaukee.
MO-01 (Clay) D+26. 50% Black. Central St. Louis.

South

VA-03 (Scott) D+18. 56% Black. Oddly shaped district connecting central Richmond, Norfolk.
VA-09 (Boucher) R+7. Rural extreme west of state.
WV-01 (Mollohan) R+6. Rural north of state.
GA-04 (Johnson) D+22. 53% Black. East inner suburbs of Atlanta.
GA-05 (Lewis) D+25. 56% Black. Central Atlanta.
AL-07 (Davis) D+17. 62% Black. Birmingham.
TN-06 (Goodman) R+4. Rural central part of state east and north of Nashville.
TN-08 (Tanner) Even. 22% Black. Rural western part of state.
TN-09 (Cohen) D+18. 59% Black. Memphis.
FL-03 (Brown) D+16. 49% Black. Central Jacksonville, rural areas south to Orlando.
FL-17 (Meek) D+35. 55% Black and 21% Latino. Northern Miami.
FL-20 (Schultz) D+18. 21% Latino. Oddly shaped Ft. Lauderdale, suburbs.
LA-03 (Melancon) R+5. 25% Black. Rural Mississippi Delta south and west of New Orleans.
AR-01 (Berry) D+01. Rural east of state.
AR-02 (Snyder) Even. Contains Little Rock.
AR-04 (Ross) Even. 24% Black. Rural south of state.
TX-09 (Green) D+21. 37% Black, 33% Latino, 11% Asian. South and west Houston.
TX-16 (Reyes) D+9. 78% Latino. El Paso.

West

CA-18 (Cardoza) D+03. 42% Latino. Modesto, Stockton.
CA-28 (Berman) D+25. 56% Latino. San Fernando Valley of LA.
CA-30 (Waxman) D+25. Beverly Hills, Santa Monica.
CA-31 (Becerra) D+30. 70% Latino and 14% Asian. Central LA.
CA-32 (Solis) D+17. 62% Latino and 18% Asian. East LA, some suburbs.
CA-37 (Richardson) D+27. 25% Black, 45% Latino, 11% Asian. South central LA, Compton.
CA-38 (Napolitano) D+20. 71% Latino and 10% Asian. East LA, some suburbs.
OR-04 (DeFazio) Even. Eugene, rural southern Willamette Valley.