More Premature Calls in "Tuesday" Election

18 hours before the polls "open", early voting exit polls continue to stream in from Public Policy Polling:

North Carolina (63% reporting): Obama 55%, McCain 45%
North Carolina governor: Perdue (D) 54%, McCrory (R) 43%
North Carolina Senate: Hagan (D) 56%, Dole (R) 41%

Florida (56% reporting): Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Montana (38% reporting): Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Montana governor: Schweitzer (D) 72%, Brown (R) 27%
Montana Senate: Baucus (D) 78%, Kelleher (R) 19%
Montana House: Rehberg (R) 50%, Driscoll (D) 47%

Ohio (30% reporting): Obama 65%, McCain 34%

Virginia (16% reporting): Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Virginia Senate: Warner (D) 68%, Gilmore (R) 31%

The North Carolina results allow me to call the North Carolina senate seat for Kay Hagan and the North Carolina governor's race for Beverly Perdue. The Montana results allow me to declare that Gov. Schweitzer and Sen. Baucus will be re-elected.

The results in North Carolina, Florida, Montana, and Ohio show strong Obama leans, but it is too early to call. McCain victories in these state will require turnout of non-early "likely" voters to be very high and for them to vote for Obama at higher rates then the poll suggests.

So far, the national picture is that Oregon, Colorado, and New Mexico have been called for Obama (21 electoral votes) and four more states (65 electoral votes) are strongly leaning. All of these states, except Oregon, voted for Bush in 2004.

In the Senate, Democrats have gained five senate seats (Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and North Carolina) and defended one (Montana).

Outlook:

"Tomorrow's" election looks like it will be good for Democrats. In early voting, Obama has gained 12 electoral votes in Bush states with 65 leaning. Since he needs only 17 more electoral votes than Kerry to win, this looks like a likely Obama victory at the current time. In the Senate, the polling for Alaska Senate is a disaster area for convicted felon Ted Stevens in Alaska. Incumbent Republicans in Minnesota and New Hampshire are likely to lose with three more Republican-held Senate seats in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Georgia possibly in play. While the Democrats are unlikely to win all 11 of these Senate seats, eight or nine looks quite likely.