Alaska 2004 Voting Results: Government Does Confusing Things

Alaska's final 2004 election returns include a confusing description of how the votes are reported. The first part explains why the turnout was "over 100%" in Anchorage:

Voter Turnout for Municipality of Anchorage Precincts

In House Districts 16 – 32 some precincts show more than 100 percent voter turnout. This is because the State of Alaska conducted a special election for the Municipality of Anchorage concurrently with the 2004 General Election. In these districts, there were two ballots, a State ballot and a Municipality ballot. The % Turnout is based on the Cards Cast number. Because each voter could have cast two ballots the turnout in these districts is inflated. In these districts look at the Times Counted number for the US Presidential race to determine the actual number of State ballots cast in each precinct. This number, divided by the number of registered voters will yield the turnout for the precinct:

Early Voting Results

In each district there is a row entitled R# Early Voting. This presents the early voting results for each of the state’s four regions. The results are shown for entire regions, not for individual districts. Because the early voting results are for the entire region, the same regional numbers are repeated in each district. For example, Region 1 contains House Districts 1-5 and 33-36. The same early voting results are presented on the R1 Early Voting row in all districts in Region 1. Although the results are listed multiple times, they were not counted more than once. These results were reported only once in the statewide summary, which accurately presents the results for each race.

Partial Count Absentee & Questioned

A voter's ballot is partially counted if he or she votes out of district and is not eligible for particular races on the ballot. The Division counts what the voter is eligible to vote and considers it a "partial count." In each district's report there is a row entitled R# HD#-#, which represents Absentee & Questioned that were partially counted for each regional office. This presents the partial counts for Absentee & Questioned voting results for the House Districts listed (HD#-#). The results are not for individual districts. Although the results are listed in each district, they were not counted more than once. These results were reported only once in the statewide summary, which accurately presents the results for each race.

The first paragraph doesn't sound too bad. You just have to look at the presidential race results to get the turnout instead of the column marked "turnout".

The second paragraph shows that in statewide races, the only available breakdown of votes not cast on Election Day is into only five regions. This doesn't give monitors a whole lot of detail.

The third paragraph I don't understand at all. The results on the reports (link) are totally confusing. There might be a guide to this somewhere, but I can't find it on the site.

The 2006 and 2008 returns are better written. It makes you feel less like the Alaska Division of Elections is trying to pull a fast one.

Obama Wins Nevada, Prez Election Now Strongly Leaning

More early voting results are in-

Nevada (74% reporting)- Obama 57%, McCain 43%

This result allows me to call Nevada for Barack Obama, since McCain would need 70% of the remaning part of the vote to win. With Oregon, Colorado, and New Mexico, he now has 26 electoral votes, of which 19 are in 2004 Bush states. In order to win, Obama needs 17 more votes than Kerry. Thus, if this holds up, McCain will have to win at least 3 electoral votes won by Kerry. Kerry did not win Ohio or Florida, and so this would have to be New Hampshire or an even less likely Kerry state like Pennsylvania. Early voting results showing strong Obama leads in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Montana, all Bush states in 2004, add to the bad news for McCain.

Georgia is too close to call in both the presidential and Senate races. This Senate race could turn out to be the ninth for Democrats, which would require a filibuster to need the votes of either Lieberman or a Democrat to be sustained. However, if the winner fails to get 50% of the vote, the Libertarian candidate (4%) will be eliminated and a second round will be held between the top two candidates on December 2.

Georgia (57% reporting)- Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Georgia Senate- Martin (D) 51%, Chambliss (R) 45%

Indiana and Missouri also have some early results in-

Indiana (22% reporting)- Obama 64%, McCain 35%
Indiana governor- Jill Long Thompson (D) 53%, Mitch Daniels (R-inc.) 46%

Missouri (11% reporting)- Obama 56%, McCain 43%
Missouri governor- Nixon (D) 67%, Hulshof 32%

More Premature Calls in "Tuesday" Election

18 hours before the polls "open", early voting exit polls continue to stream in from Public Policy Polling:

North Carolina (63% reporting): Obama 55%, McCain 45%
North Carolina governor: Perdue (D) 54%, McCrory (R) 43%
North Carolina Senate: Hagan (D) 56%, Dole (R) 41%

Florida (56% reporting): Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Montana (38% reporting): Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Montana governor: Schweitzer (D) 72%, Brown (R) 27%
Montana Senate: Baucus (D) 78%, Kelleher (R) 19%
Montana House: Rehberg (R) 50%, Driscoll (D) 47%

Ohio (30% reporting): Obama 65%, McCain 34%

Virginia (16% reporting): Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Virginia Senate: Warner (D) 68%, Gilmore (R) 31%

The North Carolina results allow me to call the North Carolina senate seat for Kay Hagan and the North Carolina governor's race for Beverly Perdue. The Montana results allow me to declare that Gov. Schweitzer and Sen. Baucus will be re-elected.

The results in North Carolina, Florida, Montana, and Ohio show strong Obama leans, but it is too early to call. McCain victories in these state will require turnout of non-early "likely" voters to be very high and for them to vote for Obama at higher rates then the poll suggests.

So far, the national picture is that Oregon, Colorado, and New Mexico have been called for Obama (21 electoral votes) and four more states (65 electoral votes) are strongly leaning. All of these states, except Oregon, voted for Bush in 2004.

In the Senate, Democrats have gained five senate seats (Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and North Carolina) and defended one (Montana).

Outlook:

"Tomorrow's" election looks like it will be good for Democrats. In early voting, Obama has gained 12 electoral votes in Bush states with 65 leaning. Since he needs only 17 more electoral votes than Kerry to win, this looks like a likely Obama victory at the current time. In the Senate, the polling for Alaska Senate is a disaster area for convicted felon Ted Stevens in Alaska. Incumbent Republicans in Minnesota and New Hampshire are likely to lose with three more Republican-held Senate seats in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Georgia possibly in play. While the Democrats are unlikely to win all 11 of these Senate seats, eight or nine looks quite likely.