House Seats- More Seats Up for Grabs??

The Democrats have won three consecutive special elections in conservative districts in the House of Representatives. This suggests there may be a lot of seats at risk.

The Republican seats listed here are those with one of four risk characteristics: 65% or lower non-Latino white population, a vote for Bush of five points more than the national average or lower, having no incumbent (indicated below as OPEN), or being listed as in play or a "race to watch" by CQPolitics, Cook Political Report, or Swing State Project. A few additional seats have been added because they appear on a Hatch-Act violating PowerPoint presentation given at a meeting attended by now-fired General Services Administration chief Lurita Doan on the subject of using government resources in a hilarious clip from a congressional hearing on the subject. I figure that if the Republicans are considering illegal schemes to hold a seat, then it might actually be at risk.

The percentage of whites is given if it is 80% or lower, and the average deviation from the national average Bush vote in 2000 and 2004 is given as R+ of D+ with percentage points. The seats in bold are those not considered to be at risk by CQPolitics. 118 of 199 Republican-held seats are listed below. A brief location description is given with the district.

I actually expect the Republicans to keep at least half of these seats- this is a list which includes fairly speculative possibilities. The loss of only a third of these, with a few Republican pickups of Democratic seats (there were none in 2006), would result in a net loss of around 35 seats, which would leave the Republicans with 164 House seats (38%) to 271 for the Democrats in the 111th Congress. The last time the Democrats held 271 House seats was in the 96th Congress, elected in 1978, which had 277 Democrats. However, many of these were leftovers from the Solid South era. The post-World War II high for the Democrats is 295 seats in the 89th Congress (elected 1964), which included almost all of the seats in the South.

Northeast (20 of 24 R seats of 92 total)- the four not listed are NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen), PA-09 (Shuster), PA-16 (Pitts), and PA-19 (Platts).

CT-04 Shays (71%, D+5), New York area (Fairfield County)
NY-03 King (D+2), Long Island (east Nassau County)
NY-13 Fossella (71%, D+1), New York City (Staten Island)
NY-23 McHugh (Even), rural far north.
NY-25 OPEN (D+3), Syracuse.
NY-26 OPEN (R+3), parts Buffalo, Rochester, area in between.
NY-29 Kuhl (R+5), part Rochester, Elmira.
NJ-02 LoBiondo (72%, D+4), Atlantic City, south.
NJ-03 OPEN (D+3), Philadelphia area.
NJ-04 Smith (R+1), Trenton, central.
NJ-05 Garrett (R+4), New York area (Paramus), far northwest.
NJ-07 OPEN (79%, R+1), New York area (Union, Somerset counties).
PA-03 English (R+2), Erie.
PA-05 OPEN (R+10), rural Appalachian north.
PA-06 Gerlach (D+2), Philadelphia area (Norristown).
PA-15 Dent (D+2), Allentown-Bethlehem.
PA-18 Murphy (R+2), Pittsburgh area (south suburban)
DE Castle (72%, D+7)
MD-01 OPEN (R+10), east of Chesapeake Bay.
MD-06 Bartlett (92%, R+13)

Midwest (31 of 50 R seats of 100 total)

OH-01 Chabot (69%, R+1), Cincinnati area (west)
OH-02 Schmidt (R+13), Cincinnati area (east)
OH-03 Turner (79%, R+3), Dayton area (south)
OH-07 OPEN (R+6), Dayton area (east), extends south of Columbus
OH-12 Tiberi (72%, R+1), Columbus area (north, east)
OH-14 LaTourette (R+2), Cleveland area (east) to PA line
OH-15 OPEN (R+1), Columbus area (west)
OH-16 OPEN (R+4), Canton.
MI-03 Ehlers (R+9), Grand Rapids
MI-04 Camp (R+3), rural north lower peninsula.
MI-06 Upton (R+2), Kalamazoo, southwest.
MI-07 Walberg (R+2), Battle Creek, Jackson.
MI-08 Rogers (R+2), Lansing, Livingston County.
MI-09 Knollenberg (Even), Detroit area (Oakland County).
MI-10 Miller (R+4), Detroit area (Macomb County), Port Huron, Thumb.
MI-11 McCotter (R+1), Detroit area (west Wayne County).
IN-03 Souder (R+16), Fort Wayne.
IN-04 Buyer (R+17), Lafayette, west Indianapolis area.
IL-06 Roskam (75%, R+3), Chicago area (DuPage County)
IL-10 Kirk (75%, D+4), Chicago area (north suburbs)
IL-11 OPEN (R+1), Chicago area (Joliet), rural area, Bloomington.
IL-13 Biggert (R+5), Chicago area (southwest)
IL-16 Manzullo (R+4), Rockford.
IL-18 OPEN (R+5), Peoria.
WI-01 Ryan (R+2), Milwaukee area (south), south to IL line.
WI-06 Petri (R+5), Lake Winnebago area, Sheboygan.
IA-04 Latham (Even), northern part of state, rural almost surrouning Des Moines.
MO-06 Graves (R+5), Kansas City area (north), north to IA line.
MO-09 OPEN (R+7), rural northeast of state.
KS-04 Tiahrt (R+12), Wichita.
NE-02 Terry (80%, R+9), Omaha.

South (39 of 81 Republican seats of 145 total)

WV-02 Capito (R+5), Charleston, east to panhandle.
VA-02 Drake (67%, R+6), Virginia Beach.
VA-04 Forbes (62%, R+5), Petersburg, Suffolk, rural southeast.
VA-05 Goode (72%, R+6), Charlottesville, rural central VA south to NC line.
VA-10 Wolf (77%, R+5), Washington area, west to WV line.
VA-11 OPEN (67%, R+1), DC area.
NC-08 Hayes (62%, R+3), east of Charlotte area.
NC-09 Myrick (R+12), Charlotte area.
SC-01 Brown (74%, R+10), Charleston.
SC-02 Wilson (68%, R+9), Columbia area, south to coastal GA line.
GA-03 Westmoreland (56%, R+19), SW Atlanta area, southwest to AL line.
GA-11 Gingery (62%, R+18), NW Atlanta area, Rome.
AL-02 OPEN (67%, R+13), Montgomery, rural southeast.
AL-03 Rogers (65%, R+4), eastern rural.
KY-02 OPEN (R+13), central rural south of Louisville.
FL-05 Brown-Waite (R+5), rural north of Tampa-St.Petersburg area.
FL-07 Mica (R+3), Daytona Beach, N and S to Jacksonville and Orlando areas.
FL-08 Keller (70%, R+3)- Orlando area.
FL-09 Bilirakis (R+4)- Tampa-St.Petersburg area (north)
FL-10 Young (D+1)- Tampa-St. Petersburg area (Clearwater)
FL-12 Putnam (72%, R+5), Central FL (Lakeland-Winter Haven).
FL-13 Buchanan (R+4)- Sarasota, Bradenton.
FL-15 OPEN (78%, R+4)- Space Coast.
FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen (30%, R+4)- Miami area (central, south coast)
FL-21 L. Diaz-Balart (21%, R+6)- Miami area (Hialeah)
FL-24 Feeney (80%, R+3)- Orlando area.
FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart (24%, R+4)- Miami area (south)
MS-03 OPEN (64%, R+13)- Jackson, south and west of Jackson.
LA-01 Scalise (80%, R+18)- New Orleans suburban
LA-04 OPEN (62%, R+7)- Shreveport.
LA-05 Alexander (63%, R+10), northeast.
TX-02 Poe (64%, R+12)- Houston area (extreme east), extending to LA border.
TX-03 Johnson (63%, R+17), Dallas area (Plano)
TX-07 Culberson (67%, R+16), Houston, west suburbs.
TX-10 McCaul (66%, R+13), rural central TX, part Austin area.
TX-11 Conaway (65%, R+25), west TX, Midland, Odessa.
TX-19 Neugebauer (64%, R+25), Lubbock.
TX-24 Marchant (64%, R+15), Dallas area (between Dallas and Ft. Worth)
TX-32 Sessions (50%, R+11), Dallas, Irving.

West (28 of 41 Republican seats of 98 total)

MT Rehberg (R+11)
ID-01 Sali (R+19), west side of Boise, north to Canadian border.
WY OPEN (R+19)
CO-04 Musgrave (79%, R+9), Ft. Collins, Greeley, rural east.
CO-06 OPEN (R+10), Denver area (south and east)
NM-01 OPEN (49%, D+2), Albuquerque area.
NM-02 OPEN (44%, R+6), Albuquerque area south to TX border.
AZ-01 OPEN (58%, R+2), rural north and east.
AZ-03 Shadegg (79%, R+6), Phoenix area (north)
NV-02 Heller (75%, R+8), Las Vegas area (north), almost entire rest of state.
NV-03 Porter (69%, D+1), Las Vegas area (south)
WA-08 Reichert (D+2), Seattle area (east)
CA-04 OPEN (R+11), Sacramento area (east), north to OR border.
CA-19 Radanovich (60%, R+10), Central Valley north of Fresno.
CA-21 Nunes (46%, R+13), Central Valley east of Fresno.
CA-24 Gallegly (69%, R+5), inland Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
CA-25 McKeon (57%, R+7), LA area (north of San Gabriels), to NV border
CA-26 Dreier (53%, R+4), LA area (foothills near San Bernardino)
CA-40 Royce (49%, R+8), LA area (central Orange County)
CA-41 Lewis (64%, R+9), LA area (extreme east) to AZ border
CA-42 Miller (51%, R+10), LA area (west Orange County)
CA-44 Calvert (51%, R+6), LA area (Riverside)
CA-45 Bono Mack (50%, R+3), LA area (Moreno valley), Palm Springs.
CA-46 Rohrabacher (63%, R+6), LA area (coastal Orange County)
CA-49 Issa (58%, R+10), San Diego area (far north), LA area (Temecula Valley)
CA-50 Bilbray (66%, R+5), San Diego area (north)
CA-52 OPEN (73%, R+9), San Diego area (west)
AK Young (68%, R+14)