House Seats- More Seats Up for Grabs??

The Democrats have won three consecutive special elections in conservative districts in the House of Representatives. This suggests there may be a lot of seats at risk.

The Republican seats listed here are those with one of four risk characteristics: 65% or lower non-Latino white population, a vote for Bush of five points more than the national average or lower, having no incumbent (indicated below as OPEN), or being listed as in play or a "race to watch" by CQPolitics, Cook Political Report, or Swing State Project. A few additional seats have been added because they appear on a Hatch-Act violating PowerPoint presentation given at a meeting attended by now-fired General Services Administration chief Lurita Doan on the subject of using government resources in a hilarious clip from a congressional hearing on the subject. I figure that if the Republicans are considering illegal schemes to hold a seat, then it might actually be at risk.

The percentage of whites is given if it is 80% or lower, and the average deviation from the national average Bush vote in 2000 and 2004 is given as R+ of D+ with percentage points. The seats in bold are those not considered to be at risk by CQPolitics. 118 of 199 Republican-held seats are listed below. A brief location description is given with the district.

I actually expect the Republicans to keep at least half of these seats- this is a list which includes fairly speculative possibilities. The loss of only a third of these, with a few Republican pickups of Democratic seats (there were none in 2006), would result in a net loss of around 35 seats, which would leave the Republicans with 164 House seats (38%) to 271 for the Democrats in the 111th Congress. The last time the Democrats held 271 House seats was in the 96th Congress, elected in 1978, which had 277 Democrats. However, many of these were leftovers from the Solid South era. The post-World War II high for the Democrats is 295 seats in the 89th Congress (elected 1964), which included almost all of the seats in the South.

Northeast (20 of 24 R seats of 92 total)- the four not listed are NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen), PA-09 (Shuster), PA-16 (Pitts), and PA-19 (Platts).

CT-04 Shays (71%, D+5), New York area (Fairfield County)
NY-03 King (D+2), Long Island (east Nassau County)
NY-13 Fossella (71%, D+1), New York City (Staten Island)
NY-23 McHugh (Even), rural far north.
NY-25 OPEN (D+3), Syracuse.
NY-26 OPEN (R+3), parts Buffalo, Rochester, area in between.
NY-29 Kuhl (R+5), part Rochester, Elmira.
NJ-02 LoBiondo (72%, D+4), Atlantic City, south.
NJ-03 OPEN (D+3), Philadelphia area.
NJ-04 Smith (R+1), Trenton, central.
NJ-05 Garrett (R+4), New York area (Paramus), far northwest.
NJ-07 OPEN (79%, R+1), New York area (Union, Somerset counties).
PA-03 English (R+2), Erie.
PA-05 OPEN (R+10), rural Appalachian north.
PA-06 Gerlach (D+2), Philadelphia area (Norristown).
PA-15 Dent (D+2), Allentown-Bethlehem.
PA-18 Murphy (R+2), Pittsburgh area (south suburban)
DE Castle (72%, D+7)
MD-01 OPEN (R+10), east of Chesapeake Bay.
MD-06 Bartlett (92%, R+13)

Midwest (31 of 50 R seats of 100 total)

OH-01 Chabot (69%, R+1), Cincinnati area (west)
OH-02 Schmidt (R+13), Cincinnati area (east)
OH-03 Turner (79%, R+3), Dayton area (south)
OH-07 OPEN (R+6), Dayton area (east), extends south of Columbus
OH-12 Tiberi (72%, R+1), Columbus area (north, east)
OH-14 LaTourette (R+2), Cleveland area (east) to PA line
OH-15 OPEN (R+1), Columbus area (west)
OH-16 OPEN (R+4), Canton.
MI-03 Ehlers (R+9), Grand Rapids
MI-04 Camp (R+3), rural north lower peninsula.
MI-06 Upton (R+2), Kalamazoo, southwest.
MI-07 Walberg (R+2), Battle Creek, Jackson.
MI-08 Rogers (R+2), Lansing, Livingston County.
MI-09 Knollenberg (Even), Detroit area (Oakland County).
MI-10 Miller (R+4), Detroit area (Macomb County), Port Huron, Thumb.
MI-11 McCotter (R+1), Detroit area (west Wayne County).
IN-03 Souder (R+16), Fort Wayne.
IN-04 Buyer (R+17), Lafayette, west Indianapolis area.
IL-06 Roskam (75%, R+3), Chicago area (DuPage County)
IL-10 Kirk (75%, D+4), Chicago area (north suburbs)
IL-11 OPEN (R+1), Chicago area (Joliet), rural area, Bloomington.
IL-13 Biggert (R+5), Chicago area (southwest)
IL-16 Manzullo (R+4), Rockford.
IL-18 OPEN (R+5), Peoria.
WI-01 Ryan (R+2), Milwaukee area (south), south to IL line.
WI-06 Petri (R+5), Lake Winnebago area, Sheboygan.
IA-04 Latham (Even), northern part of state, rural almost surrouning Des Moines.
MO-06 Graves (R+5), Kansas City area (north), north to IA line.
MO-09 OPEN (R+7), rural northeast of state.
KS-04 Tiahrt (R+12), Wichita.
NE-02 Terry (80%, R+9), Omaha.

South (39 of 81 Republican seats of 145 total)

WV-02 Capito (R+5), Charleston, east to panhandle.
VA-02 Drake (67%, R+6), Virginia Beach.
VA-04 Forbes (62%, R+5), Petersburg, Suffolk, rural southeast.
VA-05 Goode (72%, R+6), Charlottesville, rural central VA south to NC line.
VA-10 Wolf (77%, R+5), Washington area, west to WV line.
VA-11 OPEN (67%, R+1), DC area.
NC-08 Hayes (62%, R+3), east of Charlotte area.
NC-09 Myrick (R+12), Charlotte area.
SC-01 Brown (74%, R+10), Charleston.
SC-02 Wilson (68%, R+9), Columbia area, south to coastal GA line.
GA-03 Westmoreland (56%, R+19), SW Atlanta area, southwest to AL line.
GA-11 Gingery (62%, R+18), NW Atlanta area, Rome.
AL-02 OPEN (67%, R+13), Montgomery, rural southeast.
AL-03 Rogers (65%, R+4), eastern rural.
KY-02 OPEN (R+13), central rural south of Louisville.
FL-05 Brown-Waite (R+5), rural north of Tampa-St.Petersburg area.
FL-07 Mica (R+3), Daytona Beach, N and S to Jacksonville and Orlando areas.
FL-08 Keller (70%, R+3)- Orlando area.
FL-09 Bilirakis (R+4)- Tampa-St.Petersburg area (north)
FL-10 Young (D+1)- Tampa-St. Petersburg area (Clearwater)
FL-12 Putnam (72%, R+5), Central FL (Lakeland-Winter Haven).
FL-13 Buchanan (R+4)- Sarasota, Bradenton.
FL-15 OPEN (78%, R+4)- Space Coast.
FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen (30%, R+4)- Miami area (central, south coast)
FL-21 L. Diaz-Balart (21%, R+6)- Miami area (Hialeah)
FL-24 Feeney (80%, R+3)- Orlando area.
FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart (24%, R+4)- Miami area (south)
MS-03 OPEN (64%, R+13)- Jackson, south and west of Jackson.
LA-01 Scalise (80%, R+18)- New Orleans suburban
LA-04 OPEN (62%, R+7)- Shreveport.
LA-05 Alexander (63%, R+10), northeast.
TX-02 Poe (64%, R+12)- Houston area (extreme east), extending to LA border.
TX-03 Johnson (63%, R+17), Dallas area (Plano)
TX-07 Culberson (67%, R+16), Houston, west suburbs.
TX-10 McCaul (66%, R+13), rural central TX, part Austin area.
TX-11 Conaway (65%, R+25), west TX, Midland, Odessa.
TX-19 Neugebauer (64%, R+25), Lubbock.
TX-24 Marchant (64%, R+15), Dallas area (between Dallas and Ft. Worth)
TX-32 Sessions (50%, R+11), Dallas, Irving.

West (28 of 41 Republican seats of 98 total)

MT Rehberg (R+11)
ID-01 Sali (R+19), west side of Boise, north to Canadian border.
WY OPEN (R+19)
CO-04 Musgrave (79%, R+9), Ft. Collins, Greeley, rural east.
CO-06 OPEN (R+10), Denver area (south and east)
NM-01 OPEN (49%, D+2), Albuquerque area.
NM-02 OPEN (44%, R+6), Albuquerque area south to TX border.
AZ-01 OPEN (58%, R+2), rural north and east.
AZ-03 Shadegg (79%, R+6), Phoenix area (north)
NV-02 Heller (75%, R+8), Las Vegas area (north), almost entire rest of state.
NV-03 Porter (69%, D+1), Las Vegas area (south)
WA-08 Reichert (D+2), Seattle area (east)
CA-04 OPEN (R+11), Sacramento area (east), north to OR border.
CA-19 Radanovich (60%, R+10), Central Valley north of Fresno.
CA-21 Nunes (46%, R+13), Central Valley east of Fresno.
CA-24 Gallegly (69%, R+5), inland Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
CA-25 McKeon (57%, R+7), LA area (north of San Gabriels), to NV border
CA-26 Dreier (53%, R+4), LA area (foothills near San Bernardino)
CA-40 Royce (49%, R+8), LA area (central Orange County)
CA-41 Lewis (64%, R+9), LA area (extreme east) to AZ border
CA-42 Miller (51%, R+10), LA area (west Orange County)
CA-44 Calvert (51%, R+6), LA area (Riverside)
CA-45 Bono Mack (50%, R+3), LA area (Moreno valley), Palm Springs.
CA-46 Rohrabacher (63%, R+6), LA area (coastal Orange County)
CA-49 Issa (58%, R+10), San Diego area (far north), LA area (Temecula Valley)
CA-50 Bilbray (66%, R+5), San Diego area (north)
CA-52 OPEN (73%, R+9), San Diego area (west)
AK Young (68%, R+14)

Disney..Your Source for Jailbait Pictures

After the controversy over the Annie Leibowitz photo of Hannah Montana wearing only a blanket, this ad was spotted in Beijing. Astonishingly, this ad is not a pirate ad- it really did come from a Disney licensee. This appears to be a pattern-- Briney Spears and Lindsay Lohan also got their start with Disney.

Chinese News Agency Prints Embarrassing US Geographical Error

The Chinese state new agency Xinhua has made an embarrassing geographical error in reporting on a US news story. The boldface is added by me:

LOS ANGELES, April 24 (Xinhua) -- An earthquake measured at 4.2magnitude hit Reno city in northern California Thursday afternoon but caused no immediate injuries

The quake, followed by a series of aftershocks, shook downtown buildings for about 30 seconds, though there were no immediate reports of damage, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) said.

The 4.2 temblor hit at 3:55 p.m. and was centered four miles (6.4 km) northwest of Reno, the USGS said.

"We felt it over here, but nothing came off the walls," Reno police spokesman Steve Frady said.

He said that since April 15, there have been three quakes a day in the area.

The quakes are centered in an area where scores of smaller ones have been centered in recent weeks. Temblors of magnitude 2 and higher have been occurring about every three days since a swarm of widely felt earthquakes began Feb. 28, said John Anderson of the University of Nevada, Reno's seismology laboratory.

Xinhua reported that Reno is in California, while also reporting that a local university is the "University of Nevada". Perhaps China has a position that Nevada is a "renegade" state which falsely claims not to be part of California.

I Hate Illinois Nazis!

Tony Zirkle, a Republican candidate for the House of Representatives from Indiana's 2nd District, covering South Bend and Elkhart, spoke at a gathering of Illinois Nazis in Chicago on the occasion of Hitler's 119th birthday, April 20, 2008.

In a segment on South Bend's WSBT (Channel 22), which is no doubt destined to be a YouTube hit, Zirkle claimed he was there to spread the good word about Jesus Christ. However, a statement from the Nazis disagreed, saying that Zirkle "spoke on his history as a state's attorney in Indiana, prosecuting Jewish and Zionist criminal gangs involved in trafficking prostitutes and pornography from Russia and the Zionist entity."

In another interview, Zirkle defended himself saying "I'll speak before any group that invites me. I've spoken on an African-American radio station in Atlanta."

Zirkle is not expected to win the Republican primary for the seat on May 6. This is no doubt because the American National Socialist Workers Party opposes the war in Iraq, putting them far outside the mainstream of the Republican Party.

Forget Pennsylvania- In the Land of Elvis, Republicans All Shook Up

Tomorrow newspapers will have the wrong politics headline. They'll run something totally false about Hillary still being a viable candidate even though she trails by around 160 delegates (including a reasonable forecast of a ten-delegate lead in Pennsylvania) and there are only 408 lest, requiring a split of around 289 to 119 (71%, a 32-point edge) to win. There are those who think she can win with superdelegates, but I suspect the prospect of Hillary being chased around the country before the convention by angry crowds of leftist, black, and antiwar Obama supporters accusing her of trying to steal the election like her fellow corporatist honky warmonger Bush will cause the superdelegates to decide that they don't want the party to commit suicide in the general election.

Somewhere buried in the politics coverage in a minor item, if mentioned at all, may be the news that there was also voting in Mississippi for an election to the House of Representatives. This is because of one of a long series of elections -the Trent Lott Resignation Saga. Trent Lott resigned from the Senate. The governor, Haley Barbour, appointed Roger Wicker to Lott's seat. Lott was re-elected in 2006, but Wicker doesn't get to be in the Senate for the full time- he faces a special Senate election in November to see who will serve until 2012. Thad Cochran, Mississippi's other senator, is also up for re-election this year.

Roger Wicker was the member of the House of Representatives from Mississippi's 1st District, which is a large, mostly rural area in the nothern part of the state whose most famous former resident is Elvis, who was born in Tupelo, Wicker's hometown, in 1935, shortly after the town was the first to receive electricity from the Tennessee Valley Authority.

The 1st District House seat was therefore vacant and a special election for the House seat was triggered. In 2004, George W. Bush won the 1st District by 25 points. It seems like it would be easy for the Republicans to win. Primaries were set for March 11, the date of the Mississippi presidential primary. Both Republican and Democratic primaries resulted in runoffs, held April 1. Then the general election, which is nonpartisan, has all of the primary candidates on the ballot (WTF?) and the top votegetter wins if he or she gets 50%.

The general election was held today, and the results are what should be the headline tomorrow:

Travis Childers	(D)	33,138	49%
Greg Davis	(R)	31,066	46%
Steve Holland	(D)	782	1%
Glenn McCullough	(R)	957	1%
Wally Pang	(I)	724	1%
John Wages	(G)	397	1%

A Democrat won the Land of Elvis by 3 points. The exact percentage was 49.41% to 46.32%, with the 50% threshold missed by 394 votes. This is going to go to a runoff, the fourth election in two months, on May 13 with Childers and Davis only on the ballot. Those damn Greens!

And there's more! In the 2007 general election in Louisiana, Piyush "Bobby" Jindal was elected governor, freeing up his House seat, the 1st District, and then another House member, Richard Baker, in the 6th District, unexpectedly resigned in midterm to take a lobbying job with the Managed Funds Association, which is a trade group for the hedge funds industry. These seats are the subjects of a special election on May 3.

Bush won Louisiana's 6th District, which is the Baton Rouge area, by 19 points in 2004, and the 1st District, in the New Orleans upriver suburbs and the area across the 24-mile long Lake Pontchartrain Causeway, the longest bridge over a lake in the world, was one of the most heavily pro-Bush districts in 2004 with a vote of 70% to 29% for Kerry. However, many Katrina evacuees have moved into these districts and the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain in the 1st District was devastated by the influx of seawater into the lake. The causeway was out for three weeks, adding to the difficulties of north shore residents.

The two (!) votes for the primary have been held on March 8 and April 11, yielding candidates who will run in a general election with independents to be held May 3. Fortunately for Louisianans, their rules have eliminated the possibility of a second (fourth?) round of voting because the top votegetter wins in the general election (but not in the primaries). There are claims that the Democrat, Don Cazayoux, is leading in the 6th District. More embarrassment may be in store for the Republican Party.

The Trent Lott Resignation Saga will conclude in November, when all House seats and both Mississippi Senate seats will be up for re-election. By my count, there will have been five votes in Mississippi's 1st District in 2008. Former governor Ronnie Musgrove, who lost to Haley Barbour in 2004, is running against Wicker for Trent Lott's Senate seat. There will be opportunity for more Republican embarrassment.

Terrorists Attack Iran- Dan Rather Interviewed Suspect?

Iran's Press TV refers to one Abdolmalik Rigi (عبدالمالک ریگی), a Baluchi militant, in the context of a terrorist attack on a mosque in the major city of Shiraz, and connects him to the CIA, which has been listed by the Iranian government as a terrorist organization. Rigi is the head of the group Jundullah (جندالله).

An outlawed group led by Abdul-malek Rigi is said to be behind the occasional terrorist attacks in southern Iranian provinces.

The militant group is responsible for many crimes including kidnapping of foreign tourists, mass shooting of civilian travelers, and attacking police forces.

Rigi, leader of the group, is believed to be supported by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Interestingly, Dan Rather has actually interviewed Abdolmalik Rigi! (video) And in the interview we are assured that Mr. Rigi's funding doesn't come from the CIA. It comes from the Baluchi minority in Sweden!

Kuwait Uses Force- Sick of the Endless Primaries

I know some people are sick of the endless Democratic primary, but this is ridiculous! And a note to al-Jazeera: I think it would be more accurate to describe these things as "caucuses" instead of primaries, although that would be unfamiliar to non-US readers.

Kuwait diwaniya ban sparks protest

Interior ministry officials said Kuwaiti special forces intervened to disperse protesters on Friday [AFP] Kuwaiti authorities have used force to disperse a crowd protesting over a clampdown on diwaniyas, traditional meeting places, banned by law. Colonel Mohammed al-Saber, the interior ministry spokesman, said in comments carried on Kuwaiti state television that no one was seriously injured in the clash on Friday in Sabahiya, south of the capital. Special forces intervened and disperse more than 1,000 people who threw stones at them during an alleged secret vote for tribal primaries at a diwaniya, al-Saber said. The TV showed forces beating back people with batons and using tear gas. Al-Saber said authorities used minimum force. Friday's incident was the second time in a month that tribal members clashed with police over primaries that became illegal in 1998 in the Gulf country. Vote criminalised Kuwaiti tribes are holding the secret primaries to pick their candidates for parliamentary elections on May 17. Kuwait has criminalised the vote because authorities believed it encourages allegiance to the tribe rather than the state. It also deprives many Kuwaitis from a fair chance to compete in the same district if they are not supported by a tribe. Police have arrested scores of Kuwaitis for holding the banned vote so far. But the tribes have been finding a way of to getting around the crackdown by calling for "consultations" of tribesmen or organising the vote under the guise of dinner banquets. There have also been reports that the internet was used for the polling. Diwaniyas Diwaniyas, which have always existed in Gulf culture, are part of the social and political fabric of Kuwait. They are used by men and, more rarely, by women, often simply to meet socially in the evenings. The Kuwaiti government has said it will demolish 30,000 diwaniyas built illegally on state-owned land - including those belonging to members of parliament, former ministers and wealthy citizens. Kuwait's parliamentary elections were scheduled after the emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, disbanded the parliament last month because of tensions between the legislature and the cabinet that prompted the resignation of several ministers.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies