Alaska 2004 Voting Results: Government Does Confusing Things

Alaska's final 2004 election returns include a confusing description of how the votes are reported. The first part explains why the turnout was "over 100%" in Anchorage:

Voter Turnout for Municipality of Anchorage Precincts

In House Districts 16 – 32 some precincts show more than 100 percent voter turnout. This is because the State of Alaska conducted a special election for the Municipality of Anchorage concurrently with the 2004 General Election. In these districts, there were two ballots, a State ballot and a Municipality ballot. The % Turnout is based on the Cards Cast number. Because each voter could have cast two ballots the turnout in these districts is inflated. In these districts look at the Times Counted number for the US Presidential race to determine the actual number of State ballots cast in each precinct. This number, divided by the number of registered voters will yield the turnout for the precinct:

Early Voting Results

In each district there is a row entitled R# Early Voting. This presents the early voting results for each of the state’s four regions. The results are shown for entire regions, not for individual districts. Because the early voting results are for the entire region, the same regional numbers are repeated in each district. For example, Region 1 contains House Districts 1-5 and 33-36. The same early voting results are presented on the R1 Early Voting row in all districts in Region 1. Although the results are listed multiple times, they were not counted more than once. These results were reported only once in the statewide summary, which accurately presents the results for each race.

Partial Count Absentee & Questioned

A voter's ballot is partially counted if he or she votes out of district and is not eligible for particular races on the ballot. The Division counts what the voter is eligible to vote and considers it a "partial count." In each district's report there is a row entitled R# HD#-#, which represents Absentee & Questioned that were partially counted for each regional office. This presents the partial counts for Absentee & Questioned voting results for the House Districts listed (HD#-#). The results are not for individual districts. Although the results are listed in each district, they were not counted more than once. These results were reported only once in the statewide summary, which accurately presents the results for each race.

The first paragraph doesn't sound too bad. You just have to look at the presidential race results to get the turnout instead of the column marked "turnout".

The second paragraph shows that in statewide races, the only available breakdown of votes not cast on Election Day is into only five regions. This doesn't give monitors a whole lot of detail.

The third paragraph I don't understand at all. The results on the reports (link) are totally confusing. There might be a guide to this somewhere, but I can't find it on the site.

The 2006 and 2008 returns are better written. It makes you feel less like the Alaska Division of Elections is trying to pull a fast one.

Obama Wins Nevada, Prez Election Now Strongly Leaning

More early voting results are in-

Nevada (74% reporting)- Obama 57%, McCain 43%

This result allows me to call Nevada for Barack Obama, since McCain would need 70% of the remaning part of the vote to win. With Oregon, Colorado, and New Mexico, he now has 26 electoral votes, of which 19 are in 2004 Bush states. In order to win, Obama needs 17 more votes than Kerry. Thus, if this holds up, McCain will have to win at least 3 electoral votes won by Kerry. Kerry did not win Ohio or Florida, and so this would have to be New Hampshire or an even less likely Kerry state like Pennsylvania. Early voting results showing strong Obama leads in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Montana, all Bush states in 2004, add to the bad news for McCain.

Georgia is too close to call in both the presidential and Senate races. This Senate race could turn out to be the ninth for Democrats, which would require a filibuster to need the votes of either Lieberman or a Democrat to be sustained. However, if the winner fails to get 50% of the vote, the Libertarian candidate (4%) will be eliminated and a second round will be held between the top two candidates on December 2.

Georgia (57% reporting)- Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Georgia Senate- Martin (D) 51%, Chambliss (R) 45%

Indiana and Missouri also have some early results in-

Indiana (22% reporting)- Obama 64%, McCain 35%
Indiana governor- Jill Long Thompson (D) 53%, Mitch Daniels (R-inc.) 46%

Missouri (11% reporting)- Obama 56%, McCain 43%
Missouri governor- Nixon (D) 67%, Hulshof 32%

More Premature Calls in "Tuesday" Election

18 hours before the polls "open", early voting exit polls continue to stream in from Public Policy Polling:

North Carolina (63% reporting): Obama 55%, McCain 45%
North Carolina governor: Perdue (D) 54%, McCrory (R) 43%
North Carolina Senate: Hagan (D) 56%, Dole (R) 41%

Florida (56% reporting): Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Montana (38% reporting): Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Montana governor: Schweitzer (D) 72%, Brown (R) 27%
Montana Senate: Baucus (D) 78%, Kelleher (R) 19%
Montana House: Rehberg (R) 50%, Driscoll (D) 47%

Ohio (30% reporting): Obama 65%, McCain 34%

Virginia (16% reporting): Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Virginia Senate: Warner (D) 68%, Gilmore (R) 31%

The North Carolina results allow me to call the North Carolina senate seat for Kay Hagan and the North Carolina governor's race for Beverly Perdue. The Montana results allow me to declare that Gov. Schweitzer and Sen. Baucus will be re-elected.

The results in North Carolina, Florida, Montana, and Ohio show strong Obama leans, but it is too early to call. McCain victories in these state will require turnout of non-early "likely" voters to be very high and for them to vote for Obama at higher rates then the poll suggests.

So far, the national picture is that Oregon, Colorado, and New Mexico have been called for Obama (21 electoral votes) and four more states (65 electoral votes) are strongly leaning. All of these states, except Oregon, voted for Bush in 2004.

In the Senate, Democrats have gained five senate seats (Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and North Carolina) and defended one (Montana).

Outlook:

"Tomorrow's" election looks like it will be good for Democrats. In early voting, Obama has gained 12 electoral votes in Bush states with 65 leaning. Since he needs only 17 more electoral votes than Kerry to win, this looks like a likely Obama victory at the current time. In the Senate, the polling for Alaska Senate is a disaster area for convicted felon Ted Stevens in Alaska. Incumbent Republicans in Minnesota and New Hampshire are likely to lose with three more Republican-held Senate seats in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Georgia possibly in play. While the Democrats are unlikely to win all 11 of these Senate seats, eight or nine looks quite likely.

Harrysworldnews Becomes First Media Organization To Call States in 2008

In some states, considerable early voting has taken place, and polls have sampled the early voting. These exit polls in some cases give enough information that media organizations would call the race-- if the polls were already closed.

Because I am a bastard who doesn't care about demoralizing late voters, I'm going to scoop the mainstream media. Democrats have picked up three Republican Senate seats in Oregon, Colorado, and New Mexico. In the presidential race, Obama has won two 2004 Bush states, Colorado and New Mexico, with a total of 12 electoral votes,, and one Kerry state, Oregon (12). In North Carolina, Democrats strongly lead for president, Senate, governor, and in one congressional race with a Republican incumbent, but not quite by enough to call.

In Oregon, with 59% of the likely vote reporting, Sen. Barack Obama has won 7 electoral votes, which were won by John Kerry in 2004 by five points:

Obama: 64%
McCain: 35%

In an additional Oregon result, Jeff Merkley (D) has defeated incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith (R):

Merkley: 59%
Smith: 37%

In Colorado, with 65% of the likely vote reporting, Sen. Barack Obama has won 8 electoral votes, which were won by George W. Bush in 2004 by five points:

Obama: 58%
McCain: 41%

In an additional Colorado result, Rep. Mark Udall (D) has defeated Bob Schaffer (R) in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Wayne Allard (R):

M. Udall: 56%
Schaffer: 41%

In New Mexico, with 56% of the likely vote reporting, Sen. Barack Obama has won 5 electoral votes, which were won by George W. Bush by less than 1% in 2004:

Obama: 64%
McCain: 36%

In an additional New Mexico result, Rep. Tom Udall (D) has defeated Rep. Steve Pearce (R) in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Pete Domenici (R):

T. Udall: 64%
Pearce: 34%

Races in North Carolina are strongly leaning, but are in my opinion not quite ready to call:

In North Carolina, with 33% reporting:

Obama: 63%
McCain: 36%

In additional North Carolina results, Kay Hagan (D) leads Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R):

Hagan: 61%
Dole: 35%

And for governor, Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue (D) leads Pat McCrory (R) and leads 60% to 36% and Larry Kissell (D) leads Rep. Robin Hayes (R) in the 8th Congressional district by a vote of 60% to 39%. (Links)

In other states:

In Michigan, 23% has voted. Obama has a lead of 60% to 40% and Sen. Carl Levin (D) leads Jack Hoogendyk 63% to 35%.

In West Virginia, 18% has voted and Obama leads 50% to 49%. Incumbent Democrats Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Gov. Joe Manchin have comfortable leads, 61%-39% and 69%-27%.

In Minnesota, only 9% has voted. Obama leads 59% to 39% and Al Franken (D) leads incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R) by a vote of 47% to 39% with 12% for Dean Barkley.

Liberation Tigers Field World's Only Insurgent Air Force

Image: Moravan Aviation (Czech Republic) Zlin Z 142 aircraft, used by the air force of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

You'd think it would happen more often in countries with limited state air force capacity, but as far as I know, Sri Lanka's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam are the only insurgent group in the world to currently have an air force.

The Air Tigers appear to have used their air force to set the main power plant in Colombo on fire. This rare photo below shows their cool uniforms.

YOUR PICTURE GALLERY IS NOW LOADING...

The bombing mechanism is apparently manufactured by the Tigers themselves. It's just a rack with four bombs on it under the plane. (article with photo).

A report says that they actually achieved two hits on the power plant. These guys seem to have pretty good aim. There was a power outage, but that might have been a defensive measure to make visual targeting more difficult.

The aim looks pretty good for four gravity bombs, although I suppose they might have been able to fly pretty close to the target in their slow-moving little plane.

ROTFL! Persian Gulf Banks In Trouble

Banks in the Persian Gulf region have suddenly been hit with panic withdrawals, leading to government intervention.

Oddly, this is going on despite the fact that the price of oil is about $70 a barrel, which is three times the price in 2002. The oil price last was at $70 per barrel only 17 months ago.

There are reports that say:

"The six Arab Gulf economies, which pump almost 23 percent of the world's oil, need prices to remain above $60 to $65 a barrel to sustain spending, investment bank EFG-Hermes Holding SAE said in a report Sept. 23. Oil fell to a 17-month low of $63 today.

If this is true, expect blood on the streets. The US is going to leave Iraq, and the new administration is unlikely to spend most of its time going out of its way to destabilize oil markets by invading Middle Eastern countries for no reason. Prices in the $40 range within two or three years seem likely to me, which is significantly higher than the prices in the twenties that were the norm between 1986 and 2003. At some points between 1998 and 2000, the oil price actually dropped below $15 a barrel.

Mostly what this shows is that Middle East oil states might need banks which actually have some disclosure and accountablity. But accountability would require owners that are actually subject to the rule of law, and given who has all the money in these countries, the only way we could ever see this in the short term is to get out the guillotine and take off some crowned heads. Barring that, people in the Persian Gulf countries should consider keeping their cash at Citigroup or HSBC. At least the US and China might be able to fire the people who throw their depositors money away on these hare-brained investments.

Bush To Talk To Iran--After The Election!

Apparently, the Republicans don't believe their own crap about not dealing with Iran. But they're trying to keep up appearances until the election.

Once again, the page I am viewing has an ironic ad- the ad is an attack ad from the "Republican Jewish Coalition" bashing Obama for wanting to talk to Iran. Oops.

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031246.html

Last update - 19:20 25/10/2008

Report: Bush to declare renewal of ties with Iran

By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent

Tags: Israel news, U.S., diplomacy

Several American media outlets reported on Saturday that President George Bush is likely to announce after next month's presidential elections that he intends to restore the diplomatic relations with Iran, almost 30 years after they were suspended. Quoting U.S. civil servants, the reports said that Bush's decision to postpone the announcement until after the elections was meant to rid the two presidential candidates of having to deal with the controversial move. In the first stage, the American administration allegedly seeks to appoint a low-level diplomatic delegation, and has already started the recruitment process. Tehran has already been informed of the initiative, but its view on the matter remains unclear. Similar reports were published a few months ago, but the plan was then put on hold. Earlier this month, the American Iranian Council, a U.S.-based organization, was banned from operating in Iran. However, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said during a U.S. tour last month that he would consider restoring his country's relations with the U.S. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has said Tehran would favorably consider such proposal, as long as it was to be carried out bilaterally. U.S. sources said the purpose of the diplomatic effort is to better communicate American messages to the Iranian people, which are largely hostile to the U.S. They said that it does not signal a conciliatory approach to the Iranian regime or any change of policy vis-à-vis the contentious issues that are on the table, namely Iran's nuclear program. The United States severed its diplomatic ties with Iran in 1979, in the wake of the Islamic revolution that ousted the Shah and brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power. A group of Iranian students, supported by the Islamists, took over the American embassy and held its workers hostage for over a year.